INTRODUCTION:

The main transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is directly from person-to-person through close contact, respiratory droplets, an infected person coughs or sneezes ^{1, 2}. People also may be infected by touching exposed surfaces with the minor transmission route. While temperature and humidity may influence how long the virus survives outside of the human body, this effect is likely to be small compared to the degree of contact between people. If you have been in any place, you hear people saying, we’re heading into a second wave ³. It's all part of this ongoing reservoir of infection. They had believed for the first wave to be over, the number of positive COVID-19 infections would have to reach low single digits. A novel pandemic is caused by new pathogens that the vast majority of humans have no immune protection against. That allows it to become a global outbreak ^{4, 5}.

Most countries responded to the pandemic by restricting movement in addition to a massive public effort. In this way, the virus's spread slows but leaves many people vulnerable to infection once they begin to venture out again. There also have been scares in Asia. In May, travel restrictions were imposed on more than 100 million people in China's Jilin province, on the border with Russia, after dozens of cases were detected there a month after China's first lockdown ended in Wuhan. By early June, the outbreak was under control and normal life was resuming ^6-8.

Resuming, a second wave might occur when the virus returns or when a new strain of the virus develops or mutated. For example, the flu infects season around the same time (late fall with a peak in winter) each year, although the strain of the particular virus may differ. Some researchers are unpredicted for the next wave of Covid-19 because there's still a lot about the virus doesn't know ⁹.

What to expect from a second wave?

If cases will climb again, we can reintroduce lockdown to suppress a second wave. If measures are relaxed significantly, there is a high possibility to end up with a second wave in late September. A second wave might be similar to what we experienced in the spring of 2020, but in the fall, it could be harder to control when people are tired of social distancing. People would likely have to follow the same prevention measures that worked in the first, such as wearing masks and physical distancing ¹⁰.

The challenge for the government is to ensure the peak isn't so much that it overburdens the healthcare system. The question here is, will the virus become milder and no longer a problem or on the contrary, maybe more severe? The theory went on to say that the viruses will spread further if they don't kill their host and become milder. But it's not guaranteed, so It's a bit of an unknown thing some virologists trot out. It is also something that takes place over long periods. More than six months from the pandemic, there is no clear evidence the virus has mutated to spread more easily or be less deadly ^11,
12.

The second wave is going to depend on the capability, the effectiveness, possess the systems, the testing, the manpower to do the identification, isolation, and contact tracing which we will invariably get. In my opinion, if we do that, it is not inevitable that we're going to have a second wave in the fall. Thus, we may be able to affect change on how high that peak of infected might be. In truth, we will likely continue to see peaks and downs related to how well people are practicing prevention measures, and if there is an effective vaccine or treatment ^{13, 14}.

The fear is that COVID-19 may return as a second wave in the fall that coincides with the influenza season. A second wave during flu season could potentially overwhelm the healthcare system. In this scenario, there could be "a huge influx of cases" at a time when people are planning to return to their work and study, so they would be harder to address. The threat of the second wave might be very serious and could cost people their lives and economic well-being. If the large-scale second wave will undergo, some people could lose their jobs. People don't seem to be making those connections. It is reported that if everyone is obligated to wear masks all the time, it could prevent a second wave for the next 18 months. The only other thing that will change or mitigate the severity of the second wave is the availability of a targeted vaccine and perfect drug besides maintaining social distance and wearing masks ^15-
17.

Is there a glimmer of hope?

Some countries have made progress by combining various public health approaches. New Zealand and Slovenia have eradicated the virus within their borders. The UK achieved significant progress in arresting the spread of the disease. Yet the lockdown has led to the substantial economic and social loss in countries where stringent social distancing measures have been applied. Governments are now keen to start removing the restrictions and return to normal life with the relaxation of the lockdown rules. Currently, warnings are being sounded about the resurgence of COVID-19 cases a so-called second wave. Thus, what should we do to prevent it?

Our speculation about the second wave of the epidemic:

I speculate is that there will be no large second wave of the original COVID-19 this year in several countries but this is only a hunch based on knowledge of other coronavirus and common cold viruses. Adults have on average four colds a year of which about a third are coronaviruses. It is highly likely that a different coronavirus will infect people in late autumn and winter and that the testing will show an upsurge of coronavirus but not COVID-19. In this scenario, it is much more likely that the seasonal flu will kill many more people this winter than COVID-19 but that the overall death rate, which was above average for the first six months of 2020 but has now dropped below the mean, will remain below average for the remainder of the year.

My biggest worry now is that the fallout from lockdown will continue to burden people. This includes specific medical and dental problems that should have been dealt with during lockdown but was delayed or completely missed psychological trauma from lack of social contact, financial problems, and potential economic catastrophe. Currently, there are no statistics or research on the effect of the novel coronavirus on obesity these are happening whilst talk of a second wave is presently speculation that will make this fallout worse.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS:

The author thanks the University of Mosul for documenting this work.

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Received on 26.12.2020 Modified on 23.02.2021

Research J. Science and Tech. 2021; 13(3):218-220.

DOI: 10.52711/2349-2988.2021.00034